Over the past year there has been an ever-quickening drumbeat of dire news about oil. Predictions of $250 barrel super-spikes, declining global supplies, and the potential for energy wars made headline news.
In the US, high prices at the pump became a leading campaign issue and a very real driver of inflationary fears. That inflationary pressure forced the emerging giants, India and China, to tighten monetary policy, which in turn constrained economic growth. But while oil will indeed come to an end as the primary energy supply for the global economic engine, it will most likely go out with a whimper and not a roar.
Putting the global recession aside for the moment, the premise always has been: Global dependence on oil is a reality, and demand is increasing at a steady rate primarily driven by the economic growth of India and China. Concurrently, new sources of oil are increasingly difficult and costly to find. So using the basic principle of supply and demand, we should conclude that oil prices will continue to increase without any end in sight, correct?
Not exactly. First and foremost, there is the issue of supply. During the next two to three years, Iraq's oil production will increase by 3.5 million barrels per day, adding 4 per cent to the global supply. Production from new fields in Angola and Brazil is expected to add an additional 1 million to 2 million barrels per day during the same time.
Precarious dependence on foreign oil
But additional production is not what will cause oil to retreat quietly. The end of oil may have begun with the Jan. 20 inauguration of President Barack Obama. His Presidency heralds, among other things, the rapid development of the most comprehensive energy policy that the world has ever seen.
Currently the US consumes 19.6 million barrels of oil per day - 25 per cent of the world's total consumption. The US also produces one-fourth of the world's carbon emissions, more than any other country on earth. Equally alarming is the fact that the US imports 10.2 million barrels of oil per day, creating an unsustainable and strategically precarious dependence on foreign oil.
This situation is about to change faster than most expect. The new Obama Administration will soon unveil a comprehensive energy strategy that will focus on energy independence, renewable energy, and the rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
The timing may be fortuitous as the US economy deals with the impact of poor fiscal and financial oversight, an automobile industry on the brink of collapse, massive expenditures in Iraq, and a workforce that has pushed into the low-value service-industry sector.
Millions of new green jobs
This current economic plight has created a scenario in which the American public is ready, willing, and able to get behind a far-reaching and, in many ways, revolutionary energy strategy. The key elements of this strategy will include massive investment in renewable energy, including wind and solar; a rapid retooling of the US automobile industry to manufacture highly fuel-efficient vehicles with a bias toward plug-ins; the creation of a digital electrical grid; investments in high-speed rail; and an aggressive carbon cap-and-trade program.
These investments will create millions of high-value, green jobs that cannot be outsourced, and while the impact of this program will be felt across the board, one of its most measurable short- to medium-term effects will be the rapid decrease in the importing of foreign oil.
Specifically, in 2010 the US will begin reducing foreign oil consumption by 10% per year, equal to roughly 1 million barrels a day. That's more than $30 billion in reduced capital outflows in the first year alone, welcome news considering our current balance of trade.
But that's only a small part of the story. The Obama Administration plans to create a cartel of oil-importing nations that will include India and China. This group will share technology, processes, and strategy with the stated goal of eliminating the group's dependence on foreign oil.
The importance of this move cannot be overstated. India and China are keenly aware that their economies are increasingly becoming dependent on oil from volatile regions. We can expect this new group to move to aggressively share technology that will reduce the use of fossil fuels. That technology will be driven by innovation that is becoming more global with the rapid development of advanced battery technology, photovoltaic solar panels, wind turbine systems, and biofuels.
Lower demand will lead to change
The end of oil will be met with some resistance. There are many vested interests that would like to see our dependence continue. However, that resistance will be no match for the economic and strategic pressure aligned against it. In the short term our energy independence strategy, like the Manhattan Project or the Apollo program, will help pull the US economy out of a recession while creating continuous downward pressure on oil prices.
Low oil prices will further reduce the threat of inflation - high oil prices fuel higher food costs - and a reduced threat of inflation will allow central banks to maintain an easing of monetary policy. This will be welcome news to India and China. Low inflation will equate directly to an increase in GDP growth and domestic consumption for them.
And what will be the longer-term consequences of this energy revolution? As demand wanes and prices continue to remain low, significant economic and social stress will begin to be seen in the various oil dictatorships such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Ultimately this will lead to regime change and social upheaval in many of these countries.
For the US, India, China, and the other oil-importing nations, the oil-producing regions will become far less relevant. Clearly there will be challenges along the way, but in the end oil will go quietly with nothing more than a whimper.
William Nobrega is president and founder of the Conrad Group, an emerging-market strategic planning and M&A facilitation firm based in Miami. He has more than 10 years experience in this field and is widely credited for initiating global business models in emerging geographies including Brazil, India, and China. He is co-author of the recently published book, Riding the Indian Tiger: Understanding India, the World's Fastest Growing Market.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Friday, January 2, 2009
What a year it has been!
The year began with a family feud that threatened to tear apart our tiny community. It ended with two events of utter warmth, of romance and brotherhood.
The events at the Sydney Cricket Ground were immensely forgettable. Teams raged against each other, supporters seemed to take up arms and allegations of racism were in the air. It seemed, on the surface at least, that it was a cricketing issue, umpires might have got it wrong and the definition of the spirit of the game grew increasingly far-fetched, but it soon grew into a much bigger problem. The match referee was a fine cricketer but not very well versed with the law and it needed an excellent piece of judgement from a New Zealand judge to resolve matters.
India threatened to pull-out, a stupid story of a plane being on stand-by did the rounds and none of us really knew what to expect next. It was a grievous wound for it struck at the heart of the only real link between two countries. Hopefully Australia will sell uranium and India will provide fine software engineers, but until that happens regularly, cricket will continue to be the only real bond between our nations. Sydney must never happen again; a blot on the game associated with one of its most beautiful cities. We are too small for a schism.
But the game is such a beautiful healer. Just over three months later Andrew Symonds, at the centre of the whole affair, was being welcomed with Hyderabadi biryani, Mathew Hayden and Michael Hussey were being cheered in Chennai and Shane Warne could have won an election in Jaipur! The IPL was the marketing and cricketing event of the year; both are important for one cannot survive without the other. Clearly T20 will be the new missionary of the game, spreading it to lands where traditional Test cricket, or even one-day internationals, cannot enter. It needs to be looked upon as an opportunity, but the ICC responded by looking upon it as a threat to Test cricket. It is inexplicable. We step on our own toes sometimes.
The last fortnight of the year was proof of the fact that in our effort to protect Test cricket, we underestimate its potency. We look upon every new trend like a commercial liner would a boat in Somalia - we assume there are pirates everywhere. I watch a children's talent show on TV every week and am stunned by how nine and twelve year olds sing classical based songs and old melodies. Surely they should have known only remixes or computer generated sounds! So too with Test cricket which grew, and became stronger, in 2008. It will hold its own in the new world unless we obsess over it. But if we shut our windows and keep the fresh air out, we will grow weak.
Virender Sehwag is an example of how one form of the game needn't cannibalise another. Seemingly made for T20, he led one of the finest run-chases in the history of Test cricket. And Sachin Tendulkar provided the game one of its warmest, most beautiful moments by scoring a fine hundred and then putting the innings, and indeed cricket, in perspective by speaking eloquently of the atmosphere in which it was played. It was a series that may not, need not, have been played but England showed a largeness of heart that cricket must never forget. What a lovely change from England teams of my growing up years that moaned, complained and spoke condescendingly about the people that were hosting them. In one gesture, England made more friends than they could have imagined.
In between, a child attained adulthood and some elders saw it as a threat, a mystery spinner enriched the sport and sadly the spectre of violence engulfed cricket. And yes, just to remind people of the treasure we possess, Sachin Tendulkar began and ended the year with a century! We were not short of action!
The events at the Sydney Cricket Ground were immensely forgettable. Teams raged against each other, supporters seemed to take up arms and allegations of racism were in the air. It seemed, on the surface at least, that it was a cricketing issue, umpires might have got it wrong and the definition of the spirit of the game grew increasingly far-fetched, but it soon grew into a much bigger problem. The match referee was a fine cricketer but not very well versed with the law and it needed an excellent piece of judgement from a New Zealand judge to resolve matters.India threatened to pull-out, a stupid story of a plane being on stand-by did the rounds and none of us really knew what to expect next. It was a grievous wound for it struck at the heart of the only real link between two countries. Hopefully Australia will sell uranium and India will provide fine software engineers, but until that happens regularly, cricket will continue to be the only real bond between our nations. Sydney must never happen again; a blot on the game associated with one of its most beautiful cities. We are too small for a schism.
But the game is such a beautiful healer. Just over three months later Andrew Symonds, at the centre of the whole affair, was being welcomed with Hyderabadi biryani, Mathew Hayden and Michael Hussey were being cheered in Chennai and Shane Warne could have won an election in Jaipur! The IPL was the marketing and cricketing event of the year; both are important for one cannot survive without the other. Clearly T20 will be the new missionary of the game, spreading it to lands where traditional Test cricket, or even one-day internationals, cannot enter. It needs to be looked upon as an opportunity, but the ICC responded by looking upon it as a threat to Test cricket. It is inexplicable. We step on our own toes sometimes.
The last fortnight of the year was proof of the fact that in our effort to protect Test cricket, we underestimate its potency. We look upon every new trend like a commercial liner would a boat in Somalia - we assume there are pirates everywhere. I watch a children's talent show on TV every week and am stunned by how nine and twelve year olds sing classical based songs and old melodies. Surely they should have known only remixes or computer generated sounds! So too with Test cricket which grew, and became stronger, in 2008. It will hold its own in the new world unless we obsess over it. But if we shut our windows and keep the fresh air out, we will grow weak.
Virender Sehwag is an example of how one form of the game needn't cannibalise another. Seemingly made for T20, he led one of the finest run-chases in the history of Test cricket. And Sachin Tendulkar provided the game one of its warmest, most beautiful moments by scoring a fine hundred and then putting the innings, and indeed cricket, in perspective by speaking eloquently of the atmosphere in which it was played. It was a series that may not, need not, have been played but England showed a largeness of heart that cricket must never forget. What a lovely change from England teams of my growing up years that moaned, complained and spoke condescendingly about the people that were hosting them. In one gesture, England made more friends than they could have imagined.
And a week later the second highest run chase was achieved. At the end a wonderfully gifted white man had produced a fine century and a shy, inexperienced black man had played with great maturity. As AB de Villiers and JP Duminy embraced, the power and magnificence of sport blossomed again. Don't forget the new South Africa is only fifteen years old and it isn't yet fifty years since Martin Luther King's rousing cry at the Lincoln Memorial for equality of black and white.It was as beautiful an end to the year as we could have hoped for.
New Year resolutions of cricket icons
New Year resolutions for some of our rich and famous cricketing icons.
Mahendra Singh Dhoni
I hereby resolve to make less of a fuss over my personal security. I understand the environment has changed in the country in the wake of 26/11 and that as a role model I must not encourage the building up of a Jharkhand army just to insulate me from my fans. I am no politician who needs to be protected from the very people he represents.I also resolve not to make a fuss over selection, particularly when it comes to assessing my pals who may be great touring companions but who also have to perform to justify their place in the team. I will not carry players as part of my personal baggage as captain, nor will I threaten to resign when my wishes are not fulfilled.
Gautam Gambhir
Virender Sehwag
Rahul Dravid
I will not let my batting get into that analysis paralysis again. People have been very patient with my form when they could so easily have condemned my continuous presence at one drop. I promise to be honest with myself when it comes to accepting when my time is up.And 2009 is not the time to go around saying that I have answered my critics when I make centuries at a strike rate of 40. I also promise to be more dynamic as a captain in the T-20 version of the game even if it is not my cup of tea.
Sachin Tendulkar
I resolve to bat on with a high emotional quotient in the memory of those who lost their lives so tragically to terror attacks. If I play a few more innings in the New Year as I did at Chepauk atthe end of the old, I know I can help India fulfill the great ambition of becoming the number one side in the world. The time has long gone when I should have any personal goalposts to move. All the runs I make will be in the team cause but it is not as if I needed a troubled British bank to tell me what I must do for my national team.
Yuvraj Singh
I stand on the threshold of true greatness where I can be as good a Test batsman as I am a limited-overs cricketer. I don't need to get into squabbles with England greats like KP and Flintoff in order to prove my dual capacity at the crease. As another year is gone, I know it is time to buckle down and mature fast so that I serve Team India even more with the bat as well as my pie-chucking.
Harbhajan Singh
Mahendra Singh Dhoni
I hereby resolve to make less of a fuss over my personal security. I understand the environment has changed in the country in the wake of 26/11 and that as a role model I must not encourage the building up of a Jharkhand army just to insulate me from my fans. I am no politician who needs to be protected from the very people he represents.I also resolve not to make a fuss over selection, particularly when it comes to assessing my pals who may be great touring companions but who also have to perform to justify their place in the team. I will not carry players as part of my personal baggage as captain, nor will I threaten to resign when my wishes are not fulfilled.
Gautam Gambhir
I will not convert cricket into football with my attitude of getting into the face of my opponents. I know I am not Marco Materazzi defending against the likes of Zinedine Zidane. I promise to keep my elbow out of play. I know a mild attitude change will enable me to be a better human being while I try to keep up my batting form of 2007 in which I took my first steps towards becoming a great cricketer.
Virender Sehwag
I wish to continue to be myself. I may have started my career as a Sachin clone but today I am Virender and no one else. The best way I can repay those who kept faith with my adventurous batting style during the lean times is to continue to bat in that aggressive vein with just that bit of concern to give myself that chance to succeed with consistency so that the team can win, as I did with that innings in Chennai. I also resolve to wipe off the last vestige of captaincy ambitions. That is not my job.
Rahul Dravid
I will not let my batting get into that analysis paralysis again. People have been very patient with my form when they could so easily have condemned my continuous presence at one drop. I promise to be honest with myself when it comes to accepting when my time is up.And 2009 is not the time to go around saying that I have answered my critics when I make centuries at a strike rate of 40. I also promise to be more dynamic as a captain in the T-20 version of the game even if it is not my cup of tea.
Sachin Tendulkar
I resolve to bat on with a high emotional quotient in the memory of those who lost their lives so tragically to terror attacks. If I play a few more innings in the New Year as I did at Chepauk atthe end of the old, I know I can help India fulfill the great ambition of becoming the number one side in the world. The time has long gone when I should have any personal goalposts to move. All the runs I make will be in the team cause but it is not as if I needed a troubled British bank to tell me what I must do for my national team.
Yuvraj Singh
I stand on the threshold of true greatness where I can be as good a Test batsman as I am a limited-overs cricketer. I don't need to get into squabbles with England greats like KP and Flintoff in order to prove my dual capacity at the crease. As another year is gone, I know it is time to buckle down and mature fast so that I serve Team India even more with the bat as well as my pie-chucking.
Harbhajan Singh
I know I was lucky in 2008 to have the support of all my colleagues. I may not be able to say honestly that I did not cross the bounds of good behaviour in the Symonds episode as well as in the case of Sreesanth. I resolve to give one interview less in 2009 that I did last year. I refuse to suffer the foot-in-the-mouth disease just because the media keep calling.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
The Parallels between Chennai and Perth
For those wondering about the future of Test cricket, the last two matches we have witnessed should clear all doubts. First the MA Chidambaram Stadium in Chennai and then the WACA in Perth provided ten fascinating days of cricket. What's just as remarkable are the similarities between India's run-chase and that of South Africa. So we decided to take a closer look at the numbers and more, to see how alike these two innings' were.
The Plot
1 Both matches were the first game of the series, with teams looking to take an early upper hand.
2)The side that batted first (England in Chennai and Australia in Perth) took a decent first innings lead on the back of some good bowling. England had a 75 run lead while Australia's lead was 94 runs.
3)In the third innings, the teams had similar scores (England 311/9 declared, Australia 319); leaving their opposition a record score to chase- in both cases the highest fourth innings score required to win a match in the host country.
The Characters
1) The Ballistic Batter- In order to chase a big total, you need a great start. India got that from Virender Sehwag, with his squash-buckling innings of 83 which included 15 boundaries (sixes included). South Africa had Graeme Smith, who was not as aggressive but just as effective with a match-winning 108 that included 13 boundaries. In fact, both these men have been the stars with the bat for their sides through 2008. Smith is the highest run-getter this year with 1519 runs while Sehwag is second with 1445 runs.
2) The Able Ally- Sehwag and Smith both needed a calm, sedate partner at the other end. And Gautam Gambhir for India, and Hashim Amla for South Africa played that part to perfection. Both got useful fifties at similar strike-rates, 47.5 for Gambhir and 47.3 for Amla! And really, both have played the ideal supporting role all year long. Amla is South Africa's second highest run-getter with 1112 runs. Gambhir is only fourth for India, but only because he has played fewer Test matches (8) than Laxman (15) and Tendulkar (13). His average, though, is better than the rest.
3) Three down- Both teams had one failure amongst the top three, Neil McKenzie for the Proteas and Rahul Dravid for India. India lost their third wicket with 183 runs on the board, South Africa had scored 179.
4) Elegant Cameo- Truth be told, Jacques Kallis contributed more with the bat than VVS Laxman. But again, both scored fluently and helped stitch a useful partnership when the pressure was on. Kallis' flurry towards the end of Day Four was one of the unnoticed turning points in the match, which gave the visitors the momentum they carried forward to the final day.
5) The Stylish Southpaw- Yuvraj Singh has been around a while, but still had to establish himself in the Test arena. Jean-Paul Duminy was on debut. Both left-handers, with plenty to prove, stuck till the end, scoring unbeaten half centuries to take their sides home. And both delivered the knockout punch. The point one felt sure India would win was when Yuvraj hit that six of Panesar. At the WACA, Duminy's six of Krejza sent similar signals.
6) The Battered Bowlers- Only Andrew Flitnoff and Graeme Swann (three of the four wickets between them) posed any kind of threat to the Indian batsmen. The rest of the lot looked lacklustre and insipid on a fifth day pitch that offered some help to the bowlers. Likewise, Johnson and Lee (all four second innings wickets between them) were the only ones who looked like taking a wicket for the Aussies. Everyone else was easy pickings.7)The Classic Century- A match-winning 103 not out by Sachin Tendulkar, of 196 deliveries with 9 boundaries. A match-winning 106 not out by AB de Villiers, of 186 deliveries with 9 boundaries. Innings for innings, these two knocks were just as good. AB de Villiers is no Sachin Tendulkar, but his innings on Sunday could be start of him going from good to great.
The Result
1) Chases make for great viewing, right from movies to cartoons (remember the Road Runner!) to cricket. And in the end, both chases were successful, India and South Africa won by 6 wickets.
2) Both games were a fantastic advertisement for Test Cricket. Forget the fast-food version, this is what cricket is all about.
The Plot
1 Both matches were the first game of the series, with teams looking to take an early upper hand.
2)The side that batted first (England in Chennai and Australia in Perth) took a decent first innings lead on the back of some good bowling. England had a 75 run lead while Australia's lead was 94 runs.
3)In the third innings, the teams had similar scores (England 311/9 declared, Australia 319); leaving their opposition a record score to chase- in both cases the highest fourth innings score required to win a match in the host country.
The Characters
1) The Ballistic Batter- In order to chase a big total, you need a great start. India got that from Virender Sehwag, with his squash-buckling innings of 83 which included 15 boundaries (sixes included). South Africa had Graeme Smith, who was not as aggressive but just as effective with a match-winning 108 that included 13 boundaries. In fact, both these men have been the stars with the bat for their sides through 2008. Smith is the highest run-getter this year with 1519 runs while Sehwag is second with 1445 runs.
2) The Able Ally- Sehwag and Smith both needed a calm, sedate partner at the other end. And Gautam Gambhir for India, and Hashim Amla for South Africa played that part to perfection. Both got useful fifties at similar strike-rates, 47.5 for Gambhir and 47.3 for Amla! And really, both have played the ideal supporting role all year long. Amla is South Africa's second highest run-getter with 1112 runs. Gambhir is only fourth for India, but only because he has played fewer Test matches (8) than Laxman (15) and Tendulkar (13). His average, though, is better than the rest.
3) Three down- Both teams had one failure amongst the top three, Neil McKenzie for the Proteas and Rahul Dravid for India. India lost their third wicket with 183 runs on the board, South Africa had scored 179.
4) Elegant Cameo- Truth be told, Jacques Kallis contributed more with the bat than VVS Laxman. But again, both scored fluently and helped stitch a useful partnership when the pressure was on. Kallis' flurry towards the end of Day Four was one of the unnoticed turning points in the match, which gave the visitors the momentum they carried forward to the final day.
5) The Stylish Southpaw- Yuvraj Singh has been around a while, but still had to establish himself in the Test arena. Jean-Paul Duminy was on debut. Both left-handers, with plenty to prove, stuck till the end, scoring unbeaten half centuries to take their sides home. And both delivered the knockout punch. The point one felt sure India would win was when Yuvraj hit that six of Panesar. At the WACA, Duminy's six of Krejza sent similar signals.
6) The Battered Bowlers- Only Andrew Flitnoff and Graeme Swann (three of the four wickets between them) posed any kind of threat to the Indian batsmen. The rest of the lot looked lacklustre and insipid on a fifth day pitch that offered some help to the bowlers. Likewise, Johnson and Lee (all four second innings wickets between them) were the only ones who looked like taking a wicket for the Aussies. Everyone else was easy pickings.7)The Classic Century- A match-winning 103 not out by Sachin Tendulkar, of 196 deliveries with 9 boundaries. A match-winning 106 not out by AB de Villiers, of 186 deliveries with 9 boundaries. Innings for innings, these two knocks were just as good. AB de Villiers is no Sachin Tendulkar, but his innings on Sunday could be start of him going from good to great.
The Result
1) Chases make for great viewing, right from movies to cartoons (remember the Road Runner!) to cricket. And in the end, both chases were successful, India and South Africa won by 6 wickets.
2) Both games were a fantastic advertisement for Test Cricket. Forget the fast-food version, this is what cricket is all about.
Thursday, December 11, 2008
12 steps to shock-and-awe Pakistan's economy
India should take the following steps to destabilise the economy of Pakistan:
1. Identify the major export items of Pakistan (like Basmati rice, carpets, etc) and provide zero export tax or even subsidise them for export from India. Hurt Pakistan on the export front.
2. Identify the major countries providing arms to Pakistan and arm twist them. Tell Brazil and Germany (currently planning to supply massive defense items to Pakistan) that it will impact their ability to invest in India. Tell Germany that retail license to Metro will be off and other existing projects will be in jeopardy.
3. Incidentally, after the arrival of Coke and Pepsi in China, the human rights violations of China are not talked about much by US government organs. Think it is a coincidence? Unless we use our markets to arm-twist arms exporters to Pakistan, we will not achieve our objectives.
4. Tell American companies that for every 5% increase in FDI limit for them, their government needs to reduce equipping Pakistan by $5 billion. That is real politics, not whining. Let us remember that funds are in desperate search of emerging markets and not the other way about. Let us also remember that international economics is politics by another name.
5. Create assets to print/distribute their currency widely inside their country. To some extent, Telgi types can be used to outsource this activity. Or just drop their notes in remote areas.
6. Pressurise IMF to add additional conditionality to the loans given to them or at least do not vote for their loans.
7. Create assets within Pakistan to destabilise Karachi stock market - it is already in a shambles.
8. Cricket and Bollywood are the opium of the Indian middle classes. Both have been adequately manipulated/ controlled by the D-company since the eighties. Chase the D-company money in cricket/ Bollywood and punish by burning D-assets in India instead of trying to have them auctioned by the IT department when nobody comes to bid for it.
9. Provide for capital punishment to those who fund terror and help in that. We have the division in the finance ministry to monitor money laundering, etc. It is important that terror financing is taken seriously and fully integrated into money laundering monitoring systems and this division is provided with much larger budget and human resources. And it should coordinate with RAW.
10. Encourage and allow scientists/ academicians/ elites of Pakistan to opt for Indian passport and widely publicise that fact since it will hurt their self-respect and dignity. There will be a long queue to get Indian passports -- many will jump to get our passport -- since they will not be stopped at international airports. It is rumoured that Adnan Sami wants one. Do not give passports to all -- make it a prized possession. Let it hurt the army- and ISI-controlled country. This one step will destroy their identity and self-confidence.
11. Discourage companies from India from investing in Pakistan, particularly IT companies, till Pakistan stops exporting its own IT (international terrorism).
12. In all these, it is important that we do not bring in the domestic religious issues. The target is the terror central, namely Pakistan, and if there are elements helping them here then they also should be punished -- irrespective of religious labels. If Pakistan is dismantled and the idea of Pakistan is gone, many of our domestic issues will also be sorted out.
1. Identify the major export items of Pakistan (like Basmati rice, carpets, etc) and provide zero export tax or even subsidise them for export from India. Hurt Pakistan on the export front.
2. Identify the major countries providing arms to Pakistan and arm twist them. Tell Brazil and Germany (currently planning to supply massive defense items to Pakistan) that it will impact their ability to invest in India. Tell Germany that retail license to Metro will be off and other existing projects will be in jeopardy.
3. Incidentally, after the arrival of Coke and Pepsi in China, the human rights violations of China are not talked about much by US government organs. Think it is a coincidence? Unless we use our markets to arm-twist arms exporters to Pakistan, we will not achieve our objectives.
4. Tell American companies that for every 5% increase in FDI limit for them, their government needs to reduce equipping Pakistan by $5 billion. That is real politics, not whining. Let us remember that funds are in desperate search of emerging markets and not the other way about. Let us also remember that international economics is politics by another name.
5. Create assets to print/distribute their currency widely inside their country. To some extent, Telgi types can be used to outsource this activity. Or just drop their notes in remote areas.
6. Pressurise IMF to add additional conditionality to the loans given to them or at least do not vote for their loans.
7. Create assets within Pakistan to destabilise Karachi stock market - it is already in a shambles.
8. Cricket and Bollywood are the opium of the Indian middle classes. Both have been adequately manipulated/ controlled by the D-company since the eighties. Chase the D-company money in cricket/ Bollywood and punish by burning D-assets in India instead of trying to have them auctioned by the IT department when nobody comes to bid for it.
9. Provide for capital punishment to those who fund terror and help in that. We have the division in the finance ministry to monitor money laundering, etc. It is important that terror financing is taken seriously and fully integrated into money laundering monitoring systems and this division is provided with much larger budget and human resources. And it should coordinate with RAW.
10. Encourage and allow scientists/ academicians/ elites of Pakistan to opt for Indian passport and widely publicise that fact since it will hurt their self-respect and dignity. There will be a long queue to get Indian passports -- many will jump to get our passport -- since they will not be stopped at international airports. It is rumoured that Adnan Sami wants one. Do not give passports to all -- make it a prized possession. Let it hurt the army- and ISI-controlled country. This one step will destroy their identity and self-confidence.
11. Discourage companies from India from investing in Pakistan, particularly IT companies, till Pakistan stops exporting its own IT (international terrorism).
12. In all these, it is important that we do not bring in the domestic religious issues. The target is the terror central, namely Pakistan, and if there are elements helping them here then they also should be punished -- irrespective of religious labels. If Pakistan is dismantled and the idea of Pakistan is gone, many of our domestic issues will also be sorted out.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
'Is Baar Nahin'
Lyricist Prasoon Joshi Wrote this poem after the Mumbai terror attacks . Says the ad guru and film lyricist, "I believe it should reach as many people as possible because it is our collective pain and voice".
'Is baar nahin
Is baar jab woh choti si bachchi mere paas apni kharonch le kar aayegi
Main usey phoo phoo kar nahin behlaoongaPanapney doonga uski tees ko
Is baar nahin'
(This time when that little girl comes to me with her bruises, I will not blow gently at her wound, nor distract her, I will let her pain grow. Not this time.)
Is baar jab main chehron par dard likha dekhoonga
Nahin gaoonga geet peeda bhula dene wale
Dard ko risney doonga,utarney doonga andar gehrey
Is baar nahin
(This time when I see pain on faces I will not sing the song that eases pain I will let the pain seep in, deep. Not this time.)
Is baar main na marham lagaoonga
Na hi uthaoonga rui ke phahey
Aur na hi kahoonga ki tum aankein band karlo,
gardan udhar kar lo main dawa lagata hoon
Dekhney doonga sabko hum sabko khuley nangey ghaav
Is baar nahin
(This time I won't apply any balm Nor will I ask you to shut your eyes and turn your head While I gingerly apply medicine I will let everyone see the open, naked wounds, Not this time.)
Is baar jab uljhaney dekhoonga,
chatpatahat dekhoonga
Nahin daudoonga uljhee door lapetney
Uljhaney doonga jab tak ulajh sake
Is baar nahin
(This time when I see difficulty, uneasiness I will not run to solve the problems I will let them become complicated, Not this time.)
Is baar karm ka hawala de kar nahin uthaoonga auzaar
Nahin karoonga phir se ek nayee shuruaat
Nahin banoonga misaal ek karmyogi ki
Nahin aaney doonga zindagi ko aasani se patri par
Utarney doonga usey keechad main,
tedhey medhey raston pe
Nahin sookhney doonga deewaron par laga khoon
Halka nahin padney doonga uska rang
Is baar nahin banney doonga usey itna laachaar
Ki paan ki peek aur khoon ka fark hi khatm ho jaye
Is baar nahin
(This time I won't pick up my tools as a matter of duty I will not make a new beginning Nor will I stand as an example of one dedicated to my job I will not let life easily return to normalcy I will let it descend into muck, on the twisting paths I will not let the blood on the walls dry out Nor will I let its colour fade away This time I won't let it become so helpless That you can't tell blood from paan-spit Not this time.)
Is baar ghawon ko dekhna hai Gaur se
Thoda lambe wakt tak Kuch faisley
Aur uskey baad hausley
Kahin toh shuruat karni hi hogi
Is baar yahi tay kiya hai
(This time the wounds need to be watched Carefully For a long timeSome decisions are needed And then some brave moves to be made We have to begin somewhere. This time this is what I have resolved)
... Prasoon Joshi
'Is baar nahin
Is baar jab woh choti si bachchi mere paas apni kharonch le kar aayegi
Main usey phoo phoo kar nahin behlaoongaPanapney doonga uski tees ko
Is baar nahin'
(This time when that little girl comes to me with her bruises, I will not blow gently at her wound, nor distract her, I will let her pain grow. Not this time.)
Is baar jab main chehron par dard likha dekhoonga
Nahin gaoonga geet peeda bhula dene wale
Dard ko risney doonga,utarney doonga andar gehrey
Is baar nahin
(This time when I see pain on faces I will not sing the song that eases pain I will let the pain seep in, deep. Not this time.)
Is baar main na marham lagaoonga
Na hi uthaoonga rui ke phahey
Aur na hi kahoonga ki tum aankein band karlo,
gardan udhar kar lo main dawa lagata hoon
Dekhney doonga sabko hum sabko khuley nangey ghaav
Is baar nahin
(This time I won't apply any balm Nor will I ask you to shut your eyes and turn your head While I gingerly apply medicine I will let everyone see the open, naked wounds, Not this time.)
Is baar jab uljhaney dekhoonga,
chatpatahat dekhoonga
Nahin daudoonga uljhee door lapetney
Uljhaney doonga jab tak ulajh sake
Is baar nahin
(This time when I see difficulty, uneasiness I will not run to solve the problems I will let them become complicated, Not this time.)
Is baar karm ka hawala de kar nahin uthaoonga auzaar
Nahin karoonga phir se ek nayee shuruaat
Nahin banoonga misaal ek karmyogi ki
Nahin aaney doonga zindagi ko aasani se patri par
Utarney doonga usey keechad main,
tedhey medhey raston pe
Nahin sookhney doonga deewaron par laga khoon
Halka nahin padney doonga uska rang
Is baar nahin banney doonga usey itna laachaar
Ki paan ki peek aur khoon ka fark hi khatm ho jaye
Is baar nahin
(This time I won't pick up my tools as a matter of duty I will not make a new beginning Nor will I stand as an example of one dedicated to my job I will not let life easily return to normalcy I will let it descend into muck, on the twisting paths I will not let the blood on the walls dry out Nor will I let its colour fade away This time I won't let it become so helpless That you can't tell blood from paan-spit Not this time.)
Is baar ghawon ko dekhna hai Gaur se
Thoda lambe wakt tak Kuch faisley
Aur uskey baad hausley
Kahin toh shuruat karni hi hogi
Is baar yahi tay kiya hai
(This time the wounds need to be watched Carefully For a long timeSome decisions are needed And then some brave moves to be made We have to begin somewhere. This time this is what I have resolved)
... Prasoon Joshi
Cricket has to face reality
Thursday 27th November 2008
England are right to go back. Cricket has to bow to reality. Anybody far away from home, however hospitable the conditions, needs to feel happy and wanted. You cannot live in an atmosphere of helplessness. If I was in a country where armed terrorists were searching for people who carry the same passport I do, I would be on the next flight home. Similarly India must not go to Pakistan and I say so aware of how wonderfully hospitable the people of Pakistan have been in the past. But this is not about you and me, our views, our relationships. It is about sinister people.
It has been said that boycotting tours would play into the hands of those that seek to disrupt; that playing on would be akin to thumbing our nose at them. But sportsmen have bats and hockey sticks, and sometimes just a quick pair of legs. They are entertainers. And even in our part of the world, cricket must grow insignificant at times. It is a game that brings a lot of joy and cheer and optimism but it is just a game. It cannot compete with war. If you can, do tell me this is different; that this isnʼt war by another name.
What a pity though. Sport is one of the very very few things that can still unite people and bring a smile to the lips; that can help some of us forget reality, that can make us children again. Delightfully impish and irrational. Maybe art can do that; and literature. And certainly music. But sport goes beyond. It invokes competition, it reminds us of who we are. We grow passionate and we compete and imagine we are sportsmen too. We score every run they do and take every wicket they do and smile sheepishly at our wives when we return the remote some hours later.
But in the end players go home, spectators do too and we switch off our tv sets and go to bed; upset sometimes, disillusioned briefly too but we go home and we rise another day and we wait for the next game. Without sport we would be poorer, woefully poor but in the hierarchy of needs it must cede place to safety, to comfort, to relief; to the thought that you will see your child the next morning. It must never be different for some others are not so lucky. One day we may not be too but till then our priorities must be in the right order. Sport should be played in an atmosphere of joy. You cannot make a painter paint with a gun to his head.
Our reputation has been dented. Visitors to our shores have been shot brazenly and our people too in trying to defend them. Sadly we are creatures of the environment we live in. If there is a drought in the jungle even the lion must leave. So too must we accept the times and the doctrines that surround us. As we benefit so must we pay.
What a pity because we are largely a hospitable people. We support our team and occasionally scream at the opposition; we challenge their way of living sometimes but we bestow great love and sometimes great luxury on them. Hopefully this too shall pass.
And as England head back they will be relieved and contemplative. They didnʼt play great cricket, certainly not as good as they can. If they look back dispassionately, they will realize they were outplayed in the big moments. They did threaten occasionally but seemed to accept too quickly that the going would be tough. They did themselves injustice. That is why I am so keen to see them play in the tests. Hopefully things would have changed by then; the sea-breeze would have taken this stench away and the Brabourne Stadium, such a wonderful home for cricket, will be packed and cheering.
This morning, being with the family was comforting. Popping by to the other bedroom and seeing the boys sleeping calmly suddenly seemed so much more beautiful. It must be the same with everybody. That is why England had the right to make the decision they did. We must welcome them again; give them no quarter on the field, try to beat them but welcome them to our land.
Harsha Bhogle
ESPNstar.com
England are right to go back. Cricket has to bow to reality. Anybody far away from home, however hospitable the conditions, needs to feel happy and wanted. You cannot live in an atmosphere of helplessness. If I was in a country where armed terrorists were searching for people who carry the same passport I do, I would be on the next flight home. Similarly India must not go to Pakistan and I say so aware of how wonderfully hospitable the people of Pakistan have been in the past. But this is not about you and me, our views, our relationships. It is about sinister people.
It has been said that boycotting tours would play into the hands of those that seek to disrupt; that playing on would be akin to thumbing our nose at them. But sportsmen have bats and hockey sticks, and sometimes just a quick pair of legs. They are entertainers. And even in our part of the world, cricket must grow insignificant at times. It is a game that brings a lot of joy and cheer and optimism but it is just a game. It cannot compete with war. If you can, do tell me this is different; that this isnʼt war by another name.
What a pity though. Sport is one of the very very few things that can still unite people and bring a smile to the lips; that can help some of us forget reality, that can make us children again. Delightfully impish and irrational. Maybe art can do that; and literature. And certainly music. But sport goes beyond. It invokes competition, it reminds us of who we are. We grow passionate and we compete and imagine we are sportsmen too. We score every run they do and take every wicket they do and smile sheepishly at our wives when we return the remote some hours later.
But in the end players go home, spectators do too and we switch off our tv sets and go to bed; upset sometimes, disillusioned briefly too but we go home and we rise another day and we wait for the next game. Without sport we would be poorer, woefully poor but in the hierarchy of needs it must cede place to safety, to comfort, to relief; to the thought that you will see your child the next morning. It must never be different for some others are not so lucky. One day we may not be too but till then our priorities must be in the right order. Sport should be played in an atmosphere of joy. You cannot make a painter paint with a gun to his head.
Our reputation has been dented. Visitors to our shores have been shot brazenly and our people too in trying to defend them. Sadly we are creatures of the environment we live in. If there is a drought in the jungle even the lion must leave. So too must we accept the times and the doctrines that surround us. As we benefit so must we pay.
What a pity because we are largely a hospitable people. We support our team and occasionally scream at the opposition; we challenge their way of living sometimes but we bestow great love and sometimes great luxury on them. Hopefully this too shall pass.
And as England head back they will be relieved and contemplative. They didnʼt play great cricket, certainly not as good as they can. If they look back dispassionately, they will realize they were outplayed in the big moments. They did threaten occasionally but seemed to accept too quickly that the going would be tough. They did themselves injustice. That is why I am so keen to see them play in the tests. Hopefully things would have changed by then; the sea-breeze would have taken this stench away and the Brabourne Stadium, such a wonderful home for cricket, will be packed and cheering.
This morning, being with the family was comforting. Popping by to the other bedroom and seeing the boys sleeping calmly suddenly seemed so much more beautiful. It must be the same with everybody. That is why England had the right to make the decision they did. We must welcome them again; give them no quarter on the field, try to beat them but welcome them to our land.
Harsha Bhogle
ESPNstar.com
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